Objective: to develop an intelligence tool for determining the Believability of an Assertion

Premise: the areas of understanding to begin with, and to build upon

The subject area:

Human existence is confined within constructed social structures of our creation and control.  We have determined the rules, including rewards for compliance, and punishments for deviations.  This process involves agreement about values and conventions.  Numerous alternatives have been proposed, some adopted.  Much conflict has resulted over disagreements.  Power over the environment has brought vast rewards.  Understanding of the physical environment has advanced more quickly then the understanding of the social environment.  This disconnect is placing at risk the advancement of human evolution.

In the Beginning … and maturing

In the beginning a human’s life is very fragile.  Association with others is required for survival.  Over time this dependence becomes less mandatory and more a matter of choice.  We have some control over the others that we associate with, and allow to influence our lives.  This maturing process is individualistic and a function of many factors.

Knowing the others

Dependency and association with others is based upon exchange of information, ideas, feelings, and all manner of data as well as objects.  Language and other conventions and protocols have been developed to facilitate this exchange.  Key to this exchange is that all parties in the exchange must understand the communication.  Language is the basis, life experiences and world view are heavily involved.  The assumption of truth is required for the exchange to be meaningful.  The belief concerning the sincerity of the parties is an essential element in the exchange.

Random pondering

Our challenge is to bring these elements together into a coherent appreciation of: where we are, where we want to be, and how do we get there.  Basically we wish to improve our social communication, enabling our continuing advancement.

Social structures require and provide trust, cooperation, sharing,

Social structures begin/began with Mother and Father, later using metaphors, analogies, …

Social Sciences include – religion, government, justice, education, commercial, language …

Many of our existing Social structures were designed for pre-industrial life

Social Structures are continuously improved as social evolution progresses

The key to effective Social Structures is communications and agreed upon protocols

Success requires that the protocols be enforced.

AI can assist in the maturing of social structures

Real-Time Fact-Checking is being done using AI tools

OK so you can play Chess, speak many languages, write prose and poetry, fact check, predict the future, make things, control stuff, …; so how can you help with social problems?

Factual rating is only a part of Empathetical communication judgement

Profiling and prototyping the parties in a communication is critical

Our portable devices are sufficient to host many AI applications

AI Real-Time Fact-Checking type activities require access to a large amount of data

Cloud data recording and storage requires a lot of energy

Physical Science has provided the capability to more effectively conduct Social Science experiments – observing and selecting, as if manipulating

Lets try doing it with limited blood shed and reasonable social impact

Preliminary Design for obtaining a solution:

AI assisted communications evaluation (Understandable, True, Sincere, Appropriate):

Condition to be resolved:

A Plague of misinformation with resultant decay of trust – democracy destruction

Input:

The independent variables and parameters in computer operations are called input elements.  These are the data items that will initiate and drive the inquiry and analysis.  In this case, they include:

The actual assertion or condition to be analyzed, as to its believability.  

The environment of the assertion, which will include associated social conditions, like retaliatory, debating, …  

The communications media that is being used; like spoken, written, video, audio, brail, graphic, thing, code, …. 

The format of the assertion and the assumed expectations of the receiver; like language (dialect, acronym convention, slang), knowledge level, logic literacy, protocol and standards compliance, …

The observation of the source of the assertion; like face video, posture, style, stereotype identification, biometrics, history, …

Processing:

The processing performed on the input will require; 

Instructions, 

Access to computing abilities, 

Access to data bases containing pertinent collections of historical information, 

included are the algorithms required to accomplish the desired analysis.  

The analysis will include;

Data Mining and Processing of the information in the data bases sufficient to address the believability ratings.

Knowledge Discovery

Assertion History

Search of components, interactions

Personal History

Search of presenter Profile attributes – Social records, interactions

Analysis Algorithm

Output:

The results of the operation and any interim discoveries will be presented as output.  The output will be in an agreed upon format, schedule, content, media, and will include the following reports and judgements:

Believability index

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credibility

Presentation posture

Presenter’s assumptions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presupposition

Presenter’s bias

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias

Presenter’s motivation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motivation

Understandability, Truth, Sincerity, Appropriateness (UTSA) rating

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C3%BCrgen_Habermas

Trustworthiness and Expertise rating

Logic device used

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judgment_(mathematical_logic)

Recommendations for the Receiver

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evaluation

Social Protocol Infraction Report (SPIR) submitted

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grade_of_service

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_of_service

Understandability, Truth, Sincerity, Appropriateness (UTSA) rating

Trustworthiness and Expertise rating

Logic device used

Recommendations for the Receiver

Social Protocol Infraction Report (SPIR) submitted

Implementation:

Finding a Development Team should be very easy – give money to someone with a passion for solving a social condition that you wish addressed.  In the past, the physical sciences and mathematics advancements have been encouraged and assisted by giving rewards, prizes, grants, or just support and money to those wishing to investigate contemporary puzzles, challenges and conditions.  I’m reminded of the Longitude problem facing the British Empire:

Anyone alive in the eighteenth century would have known that “the longitude problem” was the thorniest scientific dilemma of the day―and had been for centuries. Lacking the ability to measure their longitude, sailors throughout the great ages of exploration had been literally lost at sea as soon as they lost sight of land. Thousands of lives, and the increasing fortunes of nations, hung on a resolution.

The scientific establishment of Europe―from Galileo to Sir Isaac Newton―had mapped the heavens in both hemispheres in its certain pursuit of a celestial answer. In stark contrast, one man, John Harrison, dared to imagine a mechanical solution―a clock that would keep precise time at sea, something no clock had ever been able to do on land. Longitude is the dramatic human story of an epic scientific quest, and of Harrison’s forty-year obsession with building his perfect timekeeper, known today as the chronometer. Full of heroism and chicanery, it is also a fascinating brief history of astronomy, navigation, and clockmaking, and opens a new window on our world.

Harrison’s solution revolutionized navigation and greatly increased the safety of long-distance sea travel. The problem he solved had been considered so important following the Scilly naval disaster of 1707 that the British Parliament was offering financial rewards of up to £20,000 (equivalent to £3.97 million in 2024) under the 1714 Longitude Act,[1] though Harrison never received the full reward due to political rivalries. He presented his first design in 1730, and worked over many years on improved designs, making several advances in time-keeping technology, finally turning to what were called sea watches. Harrison gained support from the Longitude Board in building and testing his designs. Towards the end of his life, he received recognition and a reward from Parliament.

The society of the time recognized a pressing need.  It was determined that this need was within the current science and understanding’s ability to satisfy.  To encourage the problem solvers to address this problem, incentives were introduced designed to direct inquiry into a selected focus.

Evaluation … &

Award committees typically choose the most likely alternative to achieve success, and provide the encouragement and support required.  The task at hand is selecting the appropriate group for making that selection, free of political, monetary, and established power influence, yet familiar with the problem area and its openness to assistance.  This choice must provide criteria for determining incremental success and progress, in the determination of continued support.  This choice must also consider and encourage iterations, modifications, and alteration suggested by each phase of addressing the problem.

 PITCH and Last Words:

It’s our (physical science and math) Manifest Destiny to serve the society (religion, political, media, educational, health, …) by assisting the Social Studies to become Sciences.  Perhaps by focusing the investigation on the past, and advance from there?  We know a lot more about the past, then the future & nobody is harmed by study manipulation.

Let’s “make America great (Britain) again”, and assume our manifest destiny to teach everyone to speak proper (English) & own real property.

OK so you can play Chess, speak many languages, write prose and poetry, fact check, predict the future, make things, control stuff, …; so how can you help with social problems?